Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Egads! Could there be an H5N1 Pandemic?

As each day, months, then years pass, we get further and further away from any memory of Pandemic episodes. We take for granted our vaccines and health care of today.

The Antonine Plague (165-180BC), small pox, killed up to 5 Million people and about 100 years later in it's second go around an Estimated 5,000 people were dying each day. As for the Black Death in the early 1300's it claimed the lives of 20 to 30 million Europeans in 6 years. The first Cholera Pandemic in 1816-1917 claimed about 40 million lives and there have been 6 more outbreaks since then. The Spanish Flu from 1918-1919 was unusually deadly and with in 6 months some 50 Million people were dead with world wide totals almost double that amount. Our Current Pandemic is HIV/AIDS which is estimated by 2025 will claim the lives of 90-100 million in Africa alone and it is said to be on a rise in Asia and America.


There is concern for pandemics in the future some due to antibiotic resistance, which is causing super bugs. But we must also remain attentive to SARS a highly contagious pneumonia and Influenza A, a.k.a. "bird flu" or H5N1. In May of 2005 scientists called for us to prepare for an epidemic arising from H5N1 which they say could reduce the world population by 20%. So far this has not yet happened. The Mortality Rate so far for H5N1 the Avian flu has been 61%: 418 cases, 257 deaths as of April 17, 2009.

Yesterday a six year old boy was the 24th death in Egypt and the first one this year. Egypt has seen 16 cases of bird flu this year. Currently a 4 year old boy is being treated with Tamiflu in the hospital. Let's hope and pray that this Influenza A doesn't decide to mutate and become easily passed between humans.

Adapted From
Wikipedia H5N1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1
Wikipedia Pandemic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
Egyptian boy dies of bird flu from Rueters UK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/scienceNewsMolt/idUKTRE53K5TG20090421

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